Why Has Pfizer Stock Historically Performed So Poorly for Decades [Explained]

I’ve been poking around Pfizer’s stock lately, currently sitting at a measly $26.42 as of February 27, 2025. Man, it’s a sad sight. I mean, this is a company that’s been around forever, but if you’ve held onto their stock since the late ‘90s, you’re basically right back where you started. No gains, nada. Meanwhile, their competitors like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are out here crushing it. What gives? I wanted to figure out why Pfizer’s been such a letdown for decades, so I rolled up my sleeves and dug in. Here’s what I found.

The Good Ol’ Days (That Didn’t Last)

Let’s rewind a bit.

Back in the late ‘90s and early 2000s, Pfizer was the name in pharma. They had Lipitor, this cholesterol drug that was printing money. The company used to make over $13 billion a year at its peak. Then it was Viagra, which, well, you know what that did.

Their stock was flying high, hitting something like $50 or $60 a share if you adjust for inflation. I wasn’t investing back then, but if you were, you probably felt like a genius.

Then it all started unraveling. Lipitor’s patent ran out in 2011. Generics swooped in, and poof, billions in revenue gone.

That’s when I started noticing Pfizer’s chart looking more like a flatline than a rocket.

Compare that to Eli Lilly, up 585% in five years thanks to drugs like Mounjaro, or Novo Nordisk, up 193% with Ozempic. Even Johnson & Johnson, which has had its own drama, is up 13.5%. Pfizer? Down 19.8%. Ouch.

The Patent Cliff Hit Hard

So, yeah, losing Lipitor was a gut punch.

I get it, pharma lives and dies by patents. But Pfizer didn’t seem ready for life after that blockbuster.

They’ve got stuff like Eliquis, a blood thinner, and Prevnar, a vaccine, which are doing alright, but nothing’s filled that Lipitor-sized hole.

Meanwhile, Lilly and Novo are riding this obesity and diabetes wave with their GLP-1 drugs. Over here, I’m wondering why Pfizer didn’t jump on that train.

Their pipeline’s got 112 candidates, which sounds impressive, but it feels like they’re swinging and missing on the big trends.

COVID: A Flash in the Pan

Okay, let’s talk about the COVID years, because that’s when I thought Pfizer might turn it around.

They teamed up with BioNTech, dropped the first big vaccine, and followed it with Paxlovid.

In 2022, they raked in $100 billion, nuts, right? The stock hit $61.71 in late 2021, and I was like, “Maybe they’re back.” Nope. Once the pandemic cooled off, demand tanked, and revenue dropped to $58.5 billion by 2023.

Their market cap’s now $149 billion, while Lilly’s at $734 billion and Novo’s at $576 billion.

That COVID bump was like a sugar high, fun while it lasted, but no staying power.

Management’s Big Bets (That Aren’t Paying Off Yet)

I can’t help but point a finger at the folks running the show.

Albert Bourla’s been CEO since 2019, and the stock’s down 30% under him while the S&P 500’s up 80%. Rough look.

He’s been splashing cash on deals, like $43 billion for Seagen in 2023. But I’m not seeing the payoff yet. Some activist investor group, Starboard, even called them out for overpaying.

Looking back, Pfizer’s loved these big mergers. Warner-Lambert in 2000, Wyeth in 2009, but they’ve left the company bloated and distracted.

Compare that to AbbVie, which spun off, milked Humira, and built new winners like Skyrizi. Pfizer’s playing checkers while others are on chess.

Missing the Hot Trends

Here’s where I get frustrated.

The market’s obsessed with obesity and diabetes drugs right now. Lilly and Novo are killing it there. But Pfizer’s late to the party. They’ve got this oral GLP-1 thing, danuglipron, in the works, but it’s years behind.

Oncology’s their new focus with Seagen, which is cool, but it’s a crowded field. Investors don’t seem to trust Pfizer to pull off a win, and honestly, with their track record, I kinda get it.

You might wonder if shady stuff’s to blame, like that $2.3 billion fine in 2009 for sketchy marketing.

Yeah, that sucked, but it’s not why the stock’s tanked for decades. Pharma’s full of legal messes (looking at you, J&J talc lawsuits).

I think, Pfizer’s problem isn’t fraud, it’s strategy.

How Do They Fix This?

If I were Pfizer, I’d be scrambling.

Maybe buy a hot biotech in obesity, like Viking Therapeutics, to catch up. Or lean hard into Eliquis and Seagen’s cancer drugs and make them shine.

Cut some fat, focus R&D on stuff that’ll actually move the needle, and tell investors what the plan is. Right now, it feels like they’re throwing darts blindfolded.

Pfizer’s been a slog because they lost their mojo after Lipitor. They bet big on COVID then crashed.

It’s strange how efficiently Pfizer keep missing the trends their rivals are riding. It’s not one thing, it’s a bunch of little stumbles adding up to a big faceplant.

I still think they could turn it around with the right moves. But man, they’ve got work to do.

What do you reckon? Think Pfizer’s got a shot, or are they stuck in the mud forever? Hit me up, I’m curious what you think.

Have a happy investing.